Tailoredhome Blog

Tailored Home Daily Brief in Association with Mercury-FX – 28/1/09

tailoredhome — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 09:41:34 +0000

Wednesday 28th January 09

USA

• Traders will be paying close attention to the Fed statement, since the fed

funds rate target is already near zero and there is hardly room for more cuts. In its last meeting, the Fed signalled it would use its balance sheet to fund new lending and purchase programs. The Fed also said it was “evaluating the potential benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury securities.” “The only way for Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision to hurt the dollar would be if the central bank announces they will be purchasing

long-term U.S. Treasurys in size or if they add more ingredients to their alphabet soup of new programs,” said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at Global Forex Trading in New York.

Figures out today:

1200 US Jan 23 MBA Mortgage Application Survey Market Composite Index 1195.3

Figures out today:

0930 UK Nov Average weekly earnings

• View of the Day: Sterling sell off overdone – FT.com – The pound has taken a ‘hell of a beating’ but is far from finished, argues Paul Robinson at Barclays Capital. He says its was not surprising sterling fell last week given the huge amount of negative news surrounding the UK banking system and economy. “It has been an important, if

somewhat depressing, week with a lot of news,” says Mr Robinson. However, he expects the pound to rise significantly in the longer-term. Government measures to support the UK banking system may well free up bank’s capital, alleviating the credit crunch and leading to a less severe recession in the UK. Meanwhile, Mr Robinson says,

concerns over the UK fiscal position are overdone. “For all the press reports of fiscal policy being too loose in the UK, the government has gone into the crisis with a debt to GDP ratio that is not especially worrying,” he says. “It is markedly less than the eurozone average and well below that of France and Germany.” He says not only is the pound

undervalued against the euro, but he expects the huge increase in the US fiscal deficit to become an important negative for the dollar in the months ahead. “Our new forecasts in euro/sterling are for £0.92 and £0.80 in one and twelve months time, respectively, and $1.41 and $1.80 for sterling against the dollar.”

Europe

Figures out today:

0900 GER Jan Hesse CPI

1100 GER Jan Bavaria CPI

• Investors are testing the theory that the global economy has hit or is near the bottom. Amid caution, European bourses are seen rising at the opening Wednesday, with government debt little changed. The euro, oil and spot gold are higher.

• The euro is rising again Wednesday after the German Ifo data Tuesday raised hopes for a euro-zone bottoming out, dealers said. On Tuesday, the euro gained on a rise in equities, despite a brief flight to safety on record low U.S. consumer confidence data. The euro and pound were also supported by stronger-than-expected European data. Currency analysts say the lifetime of this latest revival of risk appetite depends on the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting Wednesday.

• Germany Said to Consider 70 Percent Stake in Hypo Real Estate: Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — Germany is considering

buying a 70 percent stake in Hypo Real Estate Holding AG, the lender that has already been bailed out twice by the government, three people familiar with the situation said. That would mark the nation’s first bank nationalization in almost 80 years, according to Wolfgang Gerke, director of the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management. The

1931 collapse of Danat Bank was “our own homegrown Lehman Brothers,” Gerke said. “Sadly, we seem to have forgotten the lessons.”

Commodities

• Oil prices are higher Wednesday ahead of the U.S. Department of Energy’s weekly stockpiles report. New York’s

main futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in March, rose 67 cents to $42.25 a barrel.

• Spot gold is up $4.10 at $901.80.

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Tailored Home Daily Brief in Association with Mercury-FX

tailoredhome — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 16:02:24 +0000

Tuesday 27^th January 09

USA

• US Senate confirms Geithner as Treasury secretary.

• Fed’s Move Into ‘Uncharted Waters’ Spurs New Look at Forecasts: Jan.

27 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve officials are considering an overhaul

of their economic forecasting, aiming to make clear their objectives for

growth and inflation in the aftermath of the longest recession since the

1930s. Members of the Fed’s Open Market Committee, who start a two-day

meeting in Washington today, may need to extend their predictions beyond

the current three-year period, officials and Fed-watchers said. Because of the length and depth of the downturn, longruntrends may not be restored in three years. A longer horizon for the projections may help the public and investors understand where the central bank aims to steer the economy.

• U.S. Retail Sales May Post First Drop in 14 Years, Group Says: Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) — Sales at U.S. retailers may decline in 2009, the first annual drop in at least 14 years, as consumers continue to spend less and only purchase items that are discounted. Sales may fall 0.5 percent compared with a year earlier, the National Retail Federation said today in an e-mailed statement. This is the first time the trade group has forecast an annual decline since it started making

sales predictions in 1995, according to spokeswoman Kathy Grannis.

Figures out today:

1245 US Jan 24 ICSC/Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales Prev +1.1%

1355 US Jan 24 Johnson Redbook Index -2.5%

1400 US Nov Case-Shiller Home Price Index

1500 US Jan Conference Bd Consumer Confidence Index Exp 39 vs Prev 38

Expectation Index vs Prev 43.8

Present Situation Index vs Prev 29.4

N/A US Two-Day FOMC Meeting begins; interest rate decision expected around 2:15 p.m. EDT Wed

Figures out today:

1100 UK Jan CBI Distributive Trades Survey

Retail Sales Volume Index Exp -50 vs Prev -55

• The pound has surged against the US dollar having traded to around 1.36 yesterday we have opened this morning at 1.4150.

• Barclays shares rocketed 73%, clawing back comparable losses last week, after the group defied recent speculation by insisting it could avoid a government bailout.

Europe

Figures out today:

0830 EU Dec EuroCOIN indicator of euro area economic activity

0900 EU Nov Euro area balance of payments; Current Account Balance, Exp -8B vs Prev -6.4B

0900 GER Jan Brandenburg CPI

0900 GER Jan Ifo German Business Climate Index

Business Expectations Index Exp 77.2 vs Prev 76.8

Business Sentiment Index Exp 81.3 vs Prev 82.6

Current Conditions Index Exp 85.3 vs Prev 88.8

• German Business Confidence May Drop to 26-Year Low in January: Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) — German business confidence probably fell to the lowest level in more than 26 years in January as the global recession damped exports, prompting companies to curb production and cut jobs. The Ifo institute’s business climate index declined to 81 from 82.6 in December, according to the median of 37 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. That would be the weakest

reading since November 1982. Ifo will release the report, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, at 9.00 a.m. in Munich today.

• On Monday, the euro reversed the previous week’s losses against the dollar and yen on a bounce in equities markets and after the release of some positive U.S. data, which encouraged traders to buy up riskier currencies.

Australia and New Zealand

MFX – Daily Brief – 27.01.2009

• Australian, New Zealand Dollars Advance on Commodities, Stocks: Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) — The Australian and New Zealand dollars advanced for a second day as investor appetite for higher-yielding assets improved after U.S. home sales revived and Barclays Plc said it won’t need further capital increases. The currencies gained along with stocks and commodities prices as a private survey of more than 400 companies in Australia showed business confidence rose in December from a record low. Gains in the New Zealand dollar may be limited as economists expect policy makers to cut interest rates 1 percentage point to 4 percent when they meet Jan. 29.

Commodities

• World oil prices are little changed Tuesday with traders increasingly convinced of OPEC’s commitment to production cuts in the face of weak demand for crude, analysts said. New York’s main futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in March, rose 14 cents to $45.87 a barrel.

• Spot gold added $1.65 to $903.85 a troy ounce while LME three-month copper slipped $45 to $3,510 a metric ton.

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HOME VALUES – THE TRUTH – Property prices have fallen by around 15 per cent in the last year, according to industry figures. Tailored Home asks whether buyers should still be nervous.

tailoredhome — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 11:52:47 +0000

AS HOMES become more affordable and banks start to lend, deciding whether to buy is the next step towards taking the plunge in 2009.
The property market currently features a small, cross section of the millions of homes that appear to have fallen hugely in value. But what’s the reality?
According to Government figures, the average UK house price in November, 2008, was £199,732, after falling from £208,892 in the previous quarter.
In November 2007, the figure stood at £218,865 – 8.6 per cent higher. (Five years ago, in November 2003, the average house price was way down at £159,480.)

Regional variances

While current, national statistics tell us something about the general market, they reveal less about the regional variances and, more importantly, the historic context of the current market.
England ranked highest on the homes value list in November 2008 with the average house costing £206,161(£226,544 in November 2007).
Northern Ireland ranked at number two with the average price at £191,401(£225,863 in November 2007), while Scotland properties were selling for £156,770 in November 2008 (£165,019 in November 2007).
Wales topped the lost of affordability in November with an average house price of £150,123, (£168,383 in November 2007).

National markets

The decline in value of the four national markets shows English and Welsh properties falling by 8.7 per cent and 10.1 per cent respectively, according to the same Government figures, published by the Department of Communities and Local Government. Scottish homes fell by much smaller proportion at 3.9 per cent, while in Northern Ireland the reduction appeared to be a near landslide with a 16.2 per cent reduction values.
The banking sector disagreed to some extent with the Communities and Local Government statistics.
Nationwide puts the average house in Wales at £136,174, the average house price in Scotland at £138,941 and the average house price in Northern Ireland at £147,833.
What is not challenged is the relative affordability of buying into Wales rather than England.
A study of the Government’s own figures reveals further local variances.

Cheapest in England

For instance, according to the Communities and Local Government statistics the North East was the cheapest place in England to buy. The average house price dropped from £142,443 in August 2008, to £138,378 in November 2008, although five years ago, in November 2003, prices were even more attractive at £101,493.
The North West of England at £150,008 in November 2008 is the next cheapest, while homes Yorkshire and Humberside, are only valued a little higher at £150,567.
London of course remains the most expensive UK location into which to buy, with average prices at £314,045 in November 2008. A year ago they were £337,632.
Although more than £20,000 may seem a significant drop over 12 months, London experienced the lowest fall in house prices in England between November 2007 and November 2008, with a reduction of just 7.0 per cent.
What does it all mean? Well consider the reality of these long term Government figures.
UK house prices ten years ago were more than 100 per cent lower than they are today. The average home sold for £81,774 in 1998. Ten years earlier in 1988 it was very nearly 100 per cent lower again, at £49,355. And between 1978 and 1988 they rose more than 200 per cent from £15,594. In 1969 prices were at £4,344 and in 1958 – fifty years ago – houses went for a modest £2,390.

Cause for concern?

Is a 10-15 per cent price drop in 12 months really cause for such concern when butted up against gains over the last half a century? You decide.
For 2009, the value is understanding and researching whether you are buying into a local market that is still falling, steady in the long term or has potential to rise very soon is the key.
Location, location, location has been the rule since before cave dwellers set up home alongside fresh water and shelter.
But if you’re tempted to start studying the market, cast your eyes further than the borders of the parish boundary.
Find a home to fall in love with, consider whether you can take advantage of some good local scenery and then sit tight for a decade or two.

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Tailored Home Daily Brief in Association with Mercury-FX

tailoredhome — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 11:33:02 +0000

Monday 26^th January 09

USA

• With the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate near zero, its policymaking

arm will spend much of its mid-week meeting reviewing the wide range of new lending and asset-purchase programs the Fed has introduced.

On Friday, the government will report its first number for the fourthquarter

gross domestic product, which is expected to be down 5.4%, the worst in a quarter-century.

• Dollar Will Fall as Gold Rallies, Citigroup Says: Chart of Day: Jan. 23

(Bloomberg) — The dollar will decline as gold’s 4 percent rally today signals the Federal Reserve may succeed in reviving the economy by pumping money into the financial system, boosting inflation, according to Citigroup Inc.

Gold touched above $900 an ounce, the highest level in more than three months. The metal, along with other hard assets, is viewed as protection when inflation accelerates.

Figures out today:

1330 US Dec Chicago Fed Natl Activity Index Prev -2.47

1500 US Dec Existing Home Sales Total Sales Exp 4.4M Prev 4.49M

Percent Change -2% -8.6%

1500 US Dec Conference Board Leading Econ Indicators Exp -0.2% Prev -0.4%

Figures out today:

• 0930 UK Dec Major British Banking Groups stats

U.K. House Prices Fell Annual 9.4% in January, Hometrack Says: Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) — U.K. house prices had the biggest annual decline since at least 2001 in January as the recession worsened and banks curtailed lending,

Hometrack Ltd. said. The average cost of a home in England and Wales fell 9.4 percent from a year earlier to158,300 pounds ($216,000), the London-based property researcher said in a report today. The monthly decline of 1 percent was led by London, where prices slid 1.1 percent from December.

• The Sunday Times: January 25, 2009 – Britain is not Iceland. Is EU the next Japan? – David Smith: Currencies rise and fall. Sterling’s problems are partly related to the curtailment of international banking flows into the City and to the view among some that Britain will suffer a much worse recession than other big economies after Friday’s figures

showed a 1.5% drop in GDP in the fourth quarter. But Germany and America look at the very least similarly afflicted.

Episodes of sterling weakness are followed by periods when it rises too much. After the 1976 IMF crisis, it rose from $1.65 to above $2.40. Between 1996 and 1998 sterling climbed 25%. If there was a currency I would be worried about at the moment, however, it would be the euro. Three of its members, Greece, Portugal and Spain, have had their

credit ratings downgraded and Ireland is on “negative watch”. The European Central Bank, having started well in the crisis, is now dragging its feet and seems in a similar state of denial to the Bank of Japan in the early 1990s, before the “lost decade”. European finance ministers last week rejected proposals to coordinate banking bailouts. Again, this

looks like foot-dragging. Britain is not Iceland. But Europe, if it is not careful, could be the next Japan. The full article is worth a read and can be found at: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article5580642.ece

• Sunday Times: DAVID “DANNY” BLANCHFLOWER, the member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC) who consistently warned of the danger of recession, believes UK interest rates should “obviously” head down to America’s near-zero level. However, the man who has been known for his gloomy views on the

economy was also upbeat about Britain’s prospects over the medium term and said the markets had been wrong to think that Britain was doing worse in this recession than the eurozone.

Europe

• In data this week, further falls are expected in Germany’s Ifo business climate indicator, although economists expect the fall to be less sharp than in recent months. Other confidence indicators are due in the week ahead, with the eurozone economic climate measure also forecast to slide in January and likely to suggest a weak economic performance in the early part of this year.

Commodities

• Oil prices are lower Monday following a report that the International Monetary Fund will further lower its world economic growth forecast. New York’s main futures contract, light sweet crude for March delivery, fell 61 cents to $45.83 a barrel.

• Spot gold Monday is down $7.80 at $890.30/oz, on some mild profit-taking after its 4.9% rally Friday.

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Tailored Home Daily Brief in Association with Mercury-FX

tailoredhome — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 10:21:35 +0000

Tuesday 20^th January 2009

USA

• On Monday, the dollar ended substantially higher against the British pound

and the euro as concerns about the U.K. banking system and a ratings

downgrade for Spain pressured those currencies and reinforced a recent

return of risk aversion.

• Investors are pinning hopes that the regime of incoming U.S. President

Barack Obama can lasso the sinking economy and help it recover.

Figures out today:

2200 US Jan 17 ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence Index Prev -49

N/A US U.S. Inauguration Day; No major economic indicator scheduled

Figures out today:

0930 UK Dec UK inflation figures published

CPI Monthly Exp -1% vs Prev -0.1%

CPI Yearly Exp +2.5% vs Prev +2%

CPI Core Yearly Exp +1.4% vs Prev +2%

Retail Price Index Monthly Exp -1.3% vs Prev -0.8%

Retail Price Index Yearly Exp v+0.9% vs Prev +3%

• Yen Gains to Record Versus Pound on Concern Bank Losses to Rise: Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) — The yen rose to a record

against the pound and gained versus the euro on speculation credit-market losses will widen after the U.K. increased

aid to banks, curbing demand for higher-yielding assets funded in Japan’s currency. The British pound fell to a sixyear

low versus the dollar after the U.K. government said it would spend an extra 100 billion pounds ($142 billion) to

support the nation’s banks, a second lifeline in three months, and increase its stake in Royal Bank of Scotland Group

Plc.

Europe

Figures out today:

1000 GER Jan ZEW Indicator of Econ Sentiment

• The euro continues Tuesday under pressure from the dollar and yen, as traders respond to the slumping economic

prospects in Europe.

General

• Zero Rates Push Currency Traders to Cash-Rich Franc, Yen, Krone: Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) — At a time when interestrates

are sinking toward zero around the world, the biggest currency traders are recommending countries that have the

largest trade surpluses, led by Japan, Norway and Switzerland. BNP Paribas SA, the best currency forecaster in a

2007 Bloomberg survey, says the yen will strengthen about 14 percent against the dollar by June. Goldman Sachs

Group Inc. made Norway’s krone one of its top 2009 picks, with possible gains of 17 percent versus the dollar. Bank

of America Corp., the largest U.S. lender by assets, says the Swiss franc will advance against every major currency.

Australia and New Zealand

• N.Z. Dollar Falls After Inflation Data; Australia Dollar Drops: Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) — The New Zealand dollar

approached a six-week low after a government report showed consumer prices fell last quarter, giving the central bank

more room to cut interest rates to a record low next week. Australia’s currency also weakened, ending two days of

gains, after the European Commission lowered its forecast for the euro-area economy, adding to concern the global

slowdown will worsen. Higher interest rates in Australia and New Zealand have made the two nations’ currencies

favourites with investors seeking extra yield, helping them reach the strongest in more than 20 years against the dollar

in 2008.

Commodities

• World oil prices are mixed Tuesday in a market plagued by weak global demand, analysts said. Nymex for February

lost $2.12 to $34.39 a barrel, while Brent rose 30 cents to $44.80.

• Spot gold is still down $5.80 at $830, although it has pared some of its earlier losses on the weak euro.

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REDUNDANCY DOES NOT MEAN REPOSSESION by Tailored Home

tailoredhome — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 08:23:05 +0000

The Government has introduced a series of schemes to protect home owners from loss of income or redundancy in 2009? Tailored Home looks at the options available.

FEAR of unemployment is dominating Britain’s economic recovery.
Gordon Brown may have promised £500m over the next two years to encourage 500,000 of the country’s long-term unemployed back into work. But where’s the cash to support mortgaged up home owners if and when redundancy notices fall through letter boxes in 2009?
Well, if a short-term break from the office or the factory floor threatens to ruin your year, there are some things already in place that might just keep the roof over your head until the storm passes.
On December 3, 2008, Her Majesty’s Treasury unveiled the Homeowner Mortgage Support Scheme. It is intended to provide assurance to homeowners that they will be able to remain in their properties if they suffer a temporary fall in income.

A bridge to recovery

Treasury documents detailing the scheme describe it like this: “A bridge, giving homeowners who are experiencing financial problems sufficient time to find new employment or recover income, without the added concern and stress of potentially losing their home in the interim.”

Banks have agreed to sign up to the package, which will see lenders reduce mortgage payers’ current monthly payments.
The deferred payments are rolled up and added to the mortgage to be paid off at a later date when borrowers’ financial circumstances have improved.
Now that might seem like an unlikely prospect in the event that you do get made redundant, but a lot can change for the better in 12 months.
But what if things get worse or the job prospects don’t improve?
To persuade lenders to join the scheme, the government has guaranteed a proportion of any losses incurred on the deferred payment if the mortgage payer should default.

The scheme will run for two years, subject to review. Each borrower’s arrangement will be given a maximum duration period but the agreement will expire as soon as the borrower is able to resume normal payments.

Defaults

If, during the period of guarantee, the customer defaults, the Government will pay the lender the equivalent sum of the total amount of the interest guaranteed that is not recoverable from equity in the property.

Britain’s eight largest lenders, who account for over 70 per cent of the mortgage market, have agreed in principle. They are; HBOS, Nationwide, Abbey, Lloyds TSB, Northern Rock, Barclays, RBS and HSBC.

Chancellor Alistair Darling said of the scheme: “This is real help for homeowners at risk of repossession through no fault of their own. The scheme will give people who face a temporary fall in their income the confidence that they need to rearrange their finances so they can come through a difficult period without losing their home.”

So exactly how difficult is it to qualify for the rescue package?

Well in order to be eligible, borrowers must meet certain criteria. If you are anticipating catch here, it’s not all bad.
Borrowers must be suffering from a loss of income from employment or self employment, which is sufficient to make full mortgage payments ‘difficult’, however, they should not expect their loss of income to be permanent. In other words, there must be a reasonable expectation of a new job or income at some time in the future.
Borrowers must have taken out a mortgage of up to £400,000 and must be making regular payments.

Savings

If you have significant savings, then forget it. This is where the scheme falls down.
Borrowers’ banks accounts must contain less than £16,000. The borrower must also be the owner-occupier of the property in question.

No help is available for second homes or buy-to-let properties.

Borrowers also need to pay a certain monthly amount on an ongoing basis and finally, need to fall into arrears for a number of months during which the lender has exercised forbearance.

Additional help to families at risk of losing their homes involves as extension to the Income Support for Mortgage Interest Scheme, which allows mortgagers in financial trouble to get their mortgage interest payments met, subject to a list of eligibility criteria. The move was announced in the pre-budget report and came into effect on January 5th.

Defaults

As of October 1995 borrowers received no support for the first 39 weeks of a claim, unless their circumstances were classed as ‘vulnerable’, in which case they were entitled to 50% of their mortgage interest payments. After that 39 week period customers were eligible for full interest payments. The scheme was only available to those with mortgages of up to £100,000. Mortgagers aged over 60 were exempt from the 39 week waiting period.

A Department for Work and Pensions report commented on the 1995 guidelines: “These changes to ISMI, introduced in October 1995, were accompanied by a clear shift in policy towards safety-net provision whereby mortgagors were expected to provide cover against unemployment, sickness and accident in the private insurance market, at least in the first instance.”

As of January 5, 2009, the waiting period for Support Mortgage Interest has been cut by two thirds from 39 weeks to 13 weeks and the scheme will now be available to homeowners with mortgages of up to £200,000. The Standard Rate of Interest which is used as the basis to calculate SMI has been frozen at 6.08% for the next six months for all customers including pensioners.

Debate

In a Commons debate on December 18, 2008, Yvette Cooper, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, described the changes to the scheme as ‘the right approach to take’, because relief would be available to all those who have lost their job and been out of work for more than 13 weeks rather than for the full 39 weeks to which the relief used to apply.

“That is the right thing to do and the relief will apply to more people,” she said.

“It is certainly clear that this is about providing more support to people at a difficult time.”

Those who had already been waiting for 13 weeks by January 5 immediately qualified for the scheme. Others will qualify as soon as they reach 13 weeks. Those in vulnerable groups entitled to the 50% rate at or after 5 January will receive this rate until the 13 week point when they will become entitled to the full rate. A two year time limit on SMI will be placed on some income based Job Seekers Allowance claims.

Worried

James Purnell, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, commented on the new plans, saying, “We don’t want people who are worried about paying their mortgage to have to wait any longer than they need to for this financial help.”

Other schemes are expected over the coming months.
Not-for-profit housing associations have already been approved to buy homes from people struggling to pay their mortgage. The original owner will continue to live there with the option to buy back later. The £200m scheme, devised last year by the National Housing Federation, is expected to help 6,000 households from repossession.

Willing those redundancy notices not to materialise may be enough. But if the worst happens, know that your home might be safer than you think.

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Tailored Home Daily Brief in Association with Mercury-FX

tailoredhome — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 10:43:32 +0000

Wednesday 15^th January 09

USA

• The U.S. economy continued to weaken into 2009, a Federal Reserve

beige book report Wednesday showed, as consumers appeared unswayed by

deep holiday discounts. The employment market also softened, with some

regional Fed banks reporting pay freezes or even cuts in their districts,

especially among financial institutions where year-end bonuses are likely to

be down at least 20% to 30%.

• On Wednesday, the dollar declined to nearly a four-week low against the

yen on the release of disappointing U.S. retail data. The blow to risk appetite, coupled with an announcement from

Citigroup that it would sell a majority stake in its brokerage unit to Morgan Stanley, weighed heavily on U.S. stocks.

Figures out today:

1330 US Jan 10 Jobless Claims Weekly Jobless Claims Exp 513K vs Prev 467K

Change Exp +46K vs Prev -24K

1330 US Dec PPI Exp -2% vs Prev -2.2%

PPI Core Exp +0.1% vs Prev 0%

1330 US Jan NY Fed Empire State Survey Manufacturing Index Exp -26 vs Prev -25.76

1500 US Jan Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Business Activity Exp -36.1 vs Prev -36.1

Europe

Figures out today:

0800 `EU ECB Governing Council meeting

1000 EU Dec CPI Monthly Exp -0.1% vs Prev -0.5%

CPI Yearly Exp +1.6% vs Prev +2.1%

1245 EU ECB interest rate decision announcement Exp 2% vs Prev 2.5

1330 EU ECB Governing Council meeting press conference

• Euro Declines Toward Five-Week Low Before ECB Policy Meeting: Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) — The euro fell,

approaching a five- week low against the dollar, on speculation the European Central Bank will cut interest rates by

at least half a percentage point at a policy meeting today. ECB policy makers meeting in Frankfurt will lower the

benchmark lending rate by half a percentage point to 2 percent, according to the median of 60 forecasts in a

Bloomberg News survey. That would match the lowest rate since the ECB took charge of monetary policy in 1999.

The bank will reduce the rate to a record low of 1.5 percent in March, another survey shows. Trichet said last month

there’s a limit to how far the ECB can cut rates and has refused to give any signal for January, suggesting he favours a

pause. At the same time, data show the economy of the 16 nations sharing the euro is slipping deeper into recession as

the global financial crisis hurts exports, damps spending and swells budget deficits across the region. The ECB

announces its decision at 12:45 p.m. and Trichet holds a press conference 45 minutes later. The ECB is lagging

counterparts such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Swiss central bank, which have reduced

borrowing costs aggressively as the world’s largest economies slide simultaneously into recession for the first time

since World War II.

Russia

• Russia Devalues Ruble Fourth Time This Week, Bank Official Says: Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) — Bank Rossii, Russia’s

central bank, devalued the ruble for the fourth time in five days, letting it weaken to a record low against the dollar, an

official said. The ruble’s trading band against the target basket of dollars and euros used to manage currency swings

has been widened, said the central bank official, who declined to be identified on bank policy. The currency was also

devalued Jan. 11, Jan. 12 and yesterday. Official trading for 2009 started Jan. 11.

Australia and New Zealand

• N.Z. Dollar Falls to 7-Year Low per Yen; Australian Bonds Gain: Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) — New Zealand’s dollar fell to

the lowest since 2001 against the yen and Australia’s dollar dropped to the weakest in a month on concern the global

slowdown will worsen. Australian bonds gained. New Zealand’s currency slipped to the lowest in more than a month

versus the U.S. dollar after a government report showed house prices declined the most in three years last month,

adding to signs the nation’s recession is deepening. Australia’s 10- year yield fell to the lowest since at least 1969

after the statistics bureau said the unemployment rate rose to the highest level in almost two years…

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Tailored Home Daily Brief in Association with Mercury-FX

tailoredhome — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 08:41:04 +0000

Wednesday 14^th January 09

USA

• Dollar Weakens Versus Euro on Speculation Retail Sales Declined: Jan. 14

(Bloomberg) — The dollar declined from a five-week high against the euro on

speculation reports this week will show U.S. retail sales and manufacturing

weakened as a recession spread through the world’s largest economy. The

dollar also fell for the first day in four versus the British pound after Federal

Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said fiscal policy alone won’t lead to a

lasting economic recovery, signalling the government may need to do more

to stimulate growth.

Figures out today:

1200 US Jan 9 MBA Mortgage Application Survey

Market Composite Index Prev 1143.8

1330 US Dec Import Prices Exp -6% vs Prev -6.7%

1330 US Dec Retail & Food Sales Overall Sales Exp -1.2% vs Prev -1.8%

1500 US Nov Business Inventories Total Inventories Exp -0.4% vs Prev -0.6%

Figures out today:

0930 UK 3Q Profitability of UK companies

• LONDON, Jan 13 (Reuters) – Britain’s top share index fell for the fifth straight session on Tuesday, led by banks on

worries over the impact of the economic downturn on their earnings. The index is down 0.8 percent this month and

had lost more than 31 percent last year, its biggest annual drop since its launch in 1984.

Europe

Figures out today:

0700 GER Annual GDP

GDP, Monthly Exp 1.4 vs Prev +2.5%

GDP, Yearly Exp 1.1 vs Prev +2.6%

1000 EU Nov IndustrialProduction

MoM Pct Change (Current Period) Exp -2.1% vs Prev -1.2%

YoY Pct Change (Current Period) Exp -6.7% vs Prev -5.3%

• The euro is higher against the dollar and yen on Wednesday, reversing its downturn on Tuesday. Bank of Australia

chief currency strategist Richard Grace warned the euro could yet drop back toward $1.31; the European Central Bank

was tipped to cut interest rates Thursday. The European Central Bank’s Governing Council meets on Thursday, and

traders are wary of a potentially larger-than-expected rate cut.

Australia and New Zealand

• Australian, N.Z. Dollars Strengthen as Stocks, Commodities Gain: Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) — The Australian and New

Zealand dollars rose against Japan’s currency, rebounding from one-month lows, as stock gains and higher

commodities prices spurred demand for higher-yielding assets. The currencies snapped four-day losing streaks versus

the yen after government reports today showed home-building approvals in Australia and New Zealand increased in

November, suggesting interest-rate cuts are helping combat slowdowns in the two nations’ economies.

• Australian Dollar May Fall Versus Pound, Commonwealth Bank Says: Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) — The Australian dollar

may fall 11 percent against the British pound on an outlook for a deepening global slowdown, narrowing interest-rate

advantage and rising foreign-exchange volatility, Commonwealth Bank of Australia said. Australia’s biggest bank

forecasts the Australian dollar, also known as the Aussie, will weaken to 41.29 pence by the end of this quarter, wrote

Richard Grace, chief currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank in Sydney, in a research note yesterday.

Commodities

• World oil prices are higher Wednesday, pushed up in reaction to OPEC’s comments that the cartel was prepared for

“further measures” to shore u the market, analysts said. Prices were also partly boosted by a severe cold spell

sweeping across the northeast U.S., they said. Nymex for February gained $1.27 to $39.05 a barrel, while Brent

gained 26 cents to $45.09.

• Gold is up $4.75 at $825.05 an ounce..

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Tailored Home Daily Brief in Association with Mercury-FX

tailoredhome — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 10:26:13 +0000

Tuesday 13^th January 09

USA

• U.S. Economy May Shrink 1.5% in 2009 as Recession Stymies Fed: Jan.

13 (Bloomberg) — Economists slashed forecasts for U.S. growth in 2009 and

projected Federal Reserve policy makers won’t be able to start raising interest

rates until 2010, according to a monthly Bloomberg News survey. The

world’s largest economy will contract 1.5 percent this year, a half percentage

point more than projected last month, according to the median of 59 forecasts

in the survey taken from Jan. 5 to Jan. 12. The slump will push inflation below

what some Fed officials consider price stability, the survey showed.

Figures out today:

1300 US Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on ‘The Crisis and the Policy Response’ in London

1330 US Nov Trade Balance, in dollars Deficit Exp 51B vs Prev 57.19B

1355 US Jan 10 Johnson Redbook US Retail Sales Index vs Prev -0.6%

1430 US Tsy Interim Asst Secy Kashkari gives an update on TARP program in Washington

Figures out today:

0930 UK Nov DCLG House Price Index

0930 UK Nov Trade Global Goods Trade Balance (Adjusted) Exp -7.5B vs Prev -7.8B

Non-EU Trade Balance (Adjusted) Exp -4.2B vs Prev -4.4B

• U.K. Slumps Most Since 1989 as Home Sales Drop, Surveys Show: Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) — The British economy

slumped the most in at least two decades during the fourth quarter and home sales dropped to the lowest since the

measure began in 1978 as the recession deepened reports by lobby groups showed. The British Chambers of

Commerce’s survey of almost 6,000 companies showed the weakest results since it started in 1989, the London-based

group said today.

Europe

Figures out today:

0900 EU ECB Chief Trichet speaks on the 10th anniversary of the euro in Strasbourg, France

• Euro Weakens to One-Month Low on ECB Outlook, Spain’s Rating: Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) — The euro weakened for a

third day versus the dollar, reaching a one-month low, as traders added to bets the European Central Bank will reduce

interest rates, decreasing the appeal of the region’s assets. The 16-nation currency also declined to the lowest level in

more than a month against the yen after Standard & Poor’s said it may cut Spain’s credit rating. German Chancellor

Angela Merkel’s coalition said yesterday it will spend 50 billion euros ($66.6 billion) to support Europe’s largest

economy.

Australia and New Zealand

• N.Z. Dollar Slides on S&P Outlook; Australian Dollar Declines: Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) — The New Zealand dollar fell

the most in more than three weeks against the U.S. dollar after Standard & Poor’s revised the nation’s AA+ foreigncurrency

credit rating outlook to negative from stable. New Zealand’s currency also dropped the most versus the yen

since Dec. 19 as the nation’s businesses grew more pessimistic about the economic outlook and their earnings.

Australia’s dollar declined to the lowest level against the greenback in almost a month as gold, the country’s thirdmost

valuable export, fell the most in 1 1/2 months.

South Africa

• JOHANNESBURG, Jan 12 (Reuters) – South Africa’s rand fell almost 3 percent on Monday to its weakest level in

nearly a month against the dollar, weighed down by political uncertainty ahead of general elections this year. The rand

has been hit investors’ aversion to risk as the global economy ails, coupled with concerns over a possible drift away

from South Africa’s market-friendly policies after elections due around April. An appeals court on Monday also

overturned a lower judge’s decision in September to dismiss graft charges against ANC leader Jacob Zuma, further

clouding the political outlook.

Commodities

• Oil prices are mixed Tuesday amid continued pessimism over the state of the global economy, analysts said. Nymex

for February was down 25 cents to $37.34 a barrel, with Brent up 2 cents at $42.93.

• Spot gold is at $825.60, up $5.70 an ounce from the New York close.

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Mercury Foreign Exchange Ltd is a currency exchange service for corporates and private individuals. We’re based in the City of London and are a direct alternative to the banks for currency. We offer better-than-bank exchange rates, currency market insight and low-cost international payments.

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Buying guide to France by Tailored Home

tailoredhome — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 12:57:20 +0000

Overview

TailoredHome.co.uk’s expert overseas property finders can help you narrow down the vast choice of property on offer in France, one of the most popular second-home destinations for buyers from the UK for decades. The country is rightly admired for its long, colourful history, a wealth of art and culture, sensational regional gastronomy and an inspiring range of landscapes and climates to enjoy. Whether you prefer a Mediterranean beach home or a mountain chalet, a stylish city apartment or secluded country cottage, France has them all in abundance.

Whatever your budget, there’s almost certainly a property in France to suit you. Our nearest continental neighbour, it’s also one of the easiest countries to get to, with numerous options by road, sea, rail and air. Its property market hasn’t suffered the same dramas as those of some other European destinations recently, though there are certainly deals to be done there if you’re willing to negotiate.

France’s enduring popularity (both with British property buyers and as the world’s leading tourist destination) makes it a sound long-term investment choice. The “leaseback” scheme introduced a few years ago makes buying new-build property qualifying for the scheme particularly appealing over the long-term, as buyers will get the VAT element of the property price refunded, plus a guaranteed rental income, if they hang on to it for (usually) nine years.

British citizens have the freedom to work and live in France without restriction, making it a popular place to relocate to. Schools and hospitals are of a high standard all over France and the cost of living also compares well with the UK. There are some regions where there are already established British expat communities very happy to help new arrivals feel at home.

Numerous UK and French banks offer mortgages for buying homes in France and the buying process is straightforward and secure. British buyers have no restrictions on property ownership there and whatever type of property you’re looking for, our property finders can source homes for all budgets and requirements.

Property hotspots

Paris

One of the world’s most-visited capitals, Paris is certainly an important cultural and commercial city as well as being one of France’s most expensive real estate regions. Divided into 20 numbered districts (“arrondissements”), there’s a diversity of neighbourhoods and property types on the market.

Perennially popular, but expensive, are the central 1^st (Louvre), 4^th (Marais) and 6^th (Luxembourg), where many of the city’s wealth of shops, museums and cultural sites are located, and further west the 16^th (Passy). Less pricy, but worth consideration, are the 9^th (Opéra) north of the Seine and the 14^th (Observatoire), located to the south.

French Riviera (Côte d’Azur)

Though you may think that resorts like Nice, Cannes and St Tropez are the preserve of the super-rich, you might be surprised to discover there are affordable properties in these glamorous destinations and elsewhere along this chic French coastline. The fantastic climate and beautiful scenery of the southeast corner of France have long attracted an affluent crowd to its numerous sandy beaches, coves and harbours.

Of course, multi-millionaires will not be disappointed by the choice of superb luxury villas overlooking the azure Mediterranean waters but shop around (better still, get TailoredHome.co.uk to shop around for you) and it is possible to find good apartments and villas for a more modest budget.

Languedoc

The southern region of Languedoc-Roussillon is a popular holiday region, with plenty of resorts along its Mediterranean coast, many campsites and some great rural and Pyrenean mountain destinations too. Its many vineyards thrive under the summer sun and the rains of the mistral winds.

Buyers hoping to find a property in southern France are often struck by the relatively low house prices in Languedoc compared to elsewhere in the south, whether in its beach and harbour towns on inland in some of France’s most traditional countryside areas. The Languedoc’s excellent road, rail and air connections add to its appeal as a holiday home location.

Brittany

The region has an abundance of appealing locations for a holiday home and has long been a favourite holiday home choice for many British property buyers thanks to its proximity to the UK and great transport links via sea, road and air. Prices here are still very reasonable.

Brittany’s coastline is characterised by a combination of superb beaches, rocky cliffs and charming fishing ports. Buyers are also drawn to the lifestyle offered by some of its inland villages and country towns. Neglected countryside homes in Brittany are a popular option for buyers looking for a cheap “doer-upper” in need of renovation.

Dordogne

One of France’s most scenic and historic regions, the Dordogne offers buyers some exceptional landscapes. There are over 4,000 chateaux in this southwestern corner of the country, set in its forested hills and valleys, among the vineyards of Bergerac and along the river that gives the region its name.

There are more modest properties available too of course, though its popularity with foreign buyers has resulted in the Dordogne becoming one of France’s more expensive areas, though it’s definitely worth shopping around. A number of expats have already made their home in the Dordogne, drawn by the terrific climate and lifestyle on offer. There are plenty of scheduled flights from the UK to airports in and around the region, so accessibility is good.

French Alps

Some of France’s alpine resorts are among the best-known winter sports venues in Europe, with names like Chamonix, Courchevel, Meribel and Val d’Isere synonymous with high-quality skiing and top-class facilities. Unsurprisingly, homes in some of these most popular mountain towns and villages can be expensive, though nearby property of similar quality can be much more affordable.

Buyers can find traditional and new-build property in many resorts. Great connections by road, rail and air ensure easy transit to your holiday home for you and a large international audience of potential rental customers. Canny investors will look out for additional local amenities that will appeal to summer tourists too – hiking, cycling and health spas draw many visitors to the spectacular peaks long after the snow and ice have melted.

Tourism

As the world’s Number 1 tourist destination, the French people are proud justly of a nation that can provide something to please almost everyone. World famous for its richness of history, art, and cuisine, France provides endless delights for “culture vultures” from around the globe. There’s also much to admire in its vast array of scenery and climate, including balmy coastal resorts, agricultural landscapes, extensive vineyards, lush river valleys and breathtaking mountains. Its many delights are unlikely to diminish, continuing to attract many millions of visitors annually across the country via a comprehensive road, rail, air and maritime transport network.

2005 – 76.0 million visitors

2006 – 78.0 million visitors

2007 – 81.9 million visitors

Climate

Location	Summer (Jun-Sep) Min/Max	Winter (Dec-Feb) Min/Max
Paris	12ºC/24ºC	2ºC/7ºC
Nice (Côte d’Azur)	15ºC/26ºC	3ºC/12ºC
Montpellier (Languedoc)	14ºC/29ºC	3ºC/12ºC
Brest (Brittany)	11ºC/20ºC	4ºC/9ºC
Dordogne	12ºC/26ºC	2ºC/11ºC
Chamonix (Alps)	7ºC/24ºC	-7ºC/1ºC

Fast facts

Currency

Euro (EUR). GBP1.00=EUR1.25 (Oct 2008).

Population

64.1 million (2008 estimate)

Time zone

GMT +1

Visas

Citizens of the UK and other EU countries are not required to obtain visas to visit, work or buy a home in France.

Buying process

Ownership restrictions

Foreigners are able to buy, own and sell residential and commercial property and land without restriction in France, regardless of their residential status.

Financial

A French bank account is not absolutely essential when buying a home in France, but having one will certainly make life easier as a homeowner, as some utilities companies will insist on payment by direct debit from a local account. There are a number of banks in the UK and France that provide a choice of accounts for residents and non-residents, so shop around for the one with the best deal for fees, transfers and even interest on your credit balance (a relatively recent concept in France).

Mortgage availability

A Loan-to-Value (LTV) of 70% to 80% is typically available for loans from a wide range of UK lenders and local lenders in France.

Legal

The property buying process in France is well established but quite different from the British system – a lawyer with knowledge of the French legal system will alert you to its quirks:

Organise legal representation. You’ll need to appoint:
- A public notary (notaire), an impartial government lawyer who will oversee the entire purchase process and make sure all the legal requirements and taxes are discharged properly;
- Your own lawyer, preferably one familiar with both the French and UK legal systems.
Conduct a survey, not obligatory for French mortgage lenders, but almost certainly essential if taking out a UK mortgage and advisable for peace of mind.
The buyer and vendor both sign the preliminary sales contract (“compromis de vente”) detailing all aspects of the transfer. A deposit is payable by the buyer at this point, usually around 10% of the purchase price. There’s a seven-day “cooling off” period when the buyer can pull out of the transaction and retain the deposit.
Around two to three months later, after all the legal searches have been completed, the final contract (“acte de vente”) is signed in the presence of the notaire, officially transferring ownership of the property. All outstanding purchase monies, fees, taxes and charges are now paid.
The notaire lodges the title deed with the Land Registry.

Transaction costs

The costs involved in purchasing a home in France are:

Transfer taxes – The new owner must pay transfer taxes to the state, département and commune totalling around 5% of the purchase price.
Notary fees – These are fixed by law and non-negotiable. Allow around 1% of the purchase price, though the fee is subject to VAT of 19.6%. If more than one notaire is involved in the transaction, they split the fee between them.
Land Registry fees – For re-sale property, around 0.1% of the purchase price is payable towards the Land Registrar’s salary, with a further EUR750 (£600) to EUR1,000 (£800) payable to cover fees, certificates and other charges. A lower registration fee applies to new-build properties.
Legal fees – Allow around 1% of the purchase price for a French lawyer’s fee, and about the same for a UK lawyer, if you appoint one.
VAT (TVA) – If the property is being sold within five years of completion, the purchase price will be subject to VAT (known as TVA), currently 19.6%. Check whether the price you are quoted includes TVA or not. If TVA is chargeable, the buyer pays a reduced registration fee. Relief from TVA is available if the property is sold under the leaseback scheme.
Agent’s fee – Normally paid in full by the vendor, though this may be split with the purchaser in some instances.

Also allow costs for UK lawyers’ fees, mortgage arrangement fees, survey fees, translation fees and foreign exchange transfer charges.

Leaseback

The leaseback scheme (also known as “Residence de Tourisme” in France) applies to some new-build property schemes and was introduced to encourage the ownership and use of tourist properties all over the country.

Owners of “leaseback” property have their property managed for them by a professional management agency and earn a guaranteed rental income for the period of ownership. During this time, they’re allowed a certain number of weeks’ usage of the property for themselves.

As a reward for making their property available for rent during this period, owners who hold on to their property for a given amount of time (usually nine years) are refunded the VAT element of the purchase price. All new properties in France are subject to VAT charged at 19.6% (at the time of writing) so the reimbursement of this sum means a considerable saving (16.4%) on the market value of your home.

If you’re considering buying a new or off-plan property in France, it’s certainly worth looking for one that qualifies for the leaseback scheme.

Emigration

British and other EU citizens are able to enter France, look for a job, start a business and buy property without restriction or the need for possession of a residence permit (“carte de sejour”), though you must register as resident if you stay for longer than three months.

However, if you want to apply for permanent residency in France there is nothing to prevent you from making an application for a carte de sejour at the local “prefecture” or “mairie”. The process is quite heavy on administration and typically takes between two and three months, while the permit is usually renewable every five years.

EU citizens in employment in France will enjoy the same rights as French workers and qualify for the same social and health services as their French counterparts.

EU citizens moving to France without employment (e.g. students and retirees) must show proof of income (e.g. pension) or sufficient funds to live on without drawing on French social assistance or health insurance.

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