Tailored Home Daily Brief in Association with Mercury-FX – 28/1/09
January 28, 2009, 9:41 am
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january 2009,
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Politics,
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USA Economy | Tags:
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US EconomyWednesday 28th January 09
USA
• Traders will be paying close attention to the Fed statement, since the fed
funds rate target is already near zero and there is hardly room for more cuts. In its last meeting, the Fed signalled it would use its balance sheet to fund new lending and purchase programs. The Fed also said it was “evaluating the potential benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury securities.” “The only way for Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision to hurt the dollar would be if the central bank announces they will be purchasing
long-term U.S. Treasurys in size or if they add more ingredients to their alphabet soup of new programs,” said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at Global Forex Trading in New York.
Figures out today:
1200 US Jan 23 MBA Mortgage Application Survey Market Composite Index 1195.3
UK
Figures out today:
0930 UK Nov Average weekly earnings
• View of the Day: Sterling sell off overdone – FT.com – The pound has taken a ‘hell of a beating’ but is far from finished, argues Paul Robinson at Barclays Capital. He says its was not surprising sterling fell last week given the huge amount of negative news surrounding the UK banking system and economy. “It has been an important, if
somewhat depressing, week with a lot of news,” says Mr Robinson. However, he expects the pound to rise significantly in the longer-term. Government measures to support the UK banking system may well free up bank’s capital, alleviating the credit crunch and leading to a less severe recession in the UK. Meanwhile, Mr Robinson says,
concerns over the UK fiscal position are overdone. “For all the press reports of fiscal policy being too loose in the UK, the government has gone into the crisis with a debt to GDP ratio that is not especially worrying,” he says. “It is markedly less than the eurozone average and well below that of France and Germany.” He says not only is the pound
undervalued against the euro, but he expects the huge increase in the US fiscal deficit to become an important negative for the dollar in the months ahead. “Our new forecasts in euro/sterling are for £0.92 and £0.80 in one and twelve months time, respectively, and $1.41 and $1.80 for sterling against the dollar.”
Europe
Figures out today:
0900 GER Jan Hesse CPI
1100 GER Jan Bavaria CPI
• Investors are testing the theory that the global economy has hit or is near the bottom. Amid caution, European bourses are seen rising at the opening Wednesday, with government debt little changed. The euro, oil and spot gold are higher.
• The euro is rising again Wednesday after the German Ifo data Tuesday raised hopes for a euro-zone bottoming out, dealers said. On Tuesday, the euro gained on a rise in equities, despite a brief flight to safety on record low U.S. consumer confidence data. The euro and pound were also supported by stronger-than-expected European data. Currency analysts say the lifetime of this latest revival of risk appetite depends on the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting Wednesday.
• Germany Said to Consider 70 Percent Stake in Hypo Real Estate: Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — Germany is considering
buying a 70 percent stake in Hypo Real Estate Holding AG, the lender that has already been bailed out twice by the government, three people familiar with the situation said. That would mark the nation’s first bank nationalization in almost 80 years, according to Wolfgang Gerke, director of the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management. The
1931 collapse of Danat Bank was “our own homegrown Lehman Brothers,” Gerke said. “Sadly, we seem to have forgotten the lessons.”
Commodities
• Oil prices are higher Wednesday ahead of the U.S. Department of Energy’s weekly stockpiles report. New York’s
main futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in March, rose 67 cents to $42.25 a barrel.
• Spot gold is up $4.10 at $901.80.
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Mercury Foreign Exchange Ltd is a currency exchange service for corporates and private individuals. We’re based in the City of London and are a direct alternative to the banks for currency. We offer better-than-bank exchange rates, currency market insight and low-cost international payments.
Why not order your holiday money online and have it delivered to your office https://www.currency-express.com/mercuryfx/
Tailored Home Daily Brief in Association with Mercury-FX
January 15, 2009, 10:43 am
Filed under:
Australia,
bank of england,
Business Markets,
Buying abroad,
Commodities,
Currency,
dollar,
Emerging Markets,
Europe,
Euros,
Financial markets,
Foreign Exchange,
interest rates,
january 2009,
New Zealand,
property,
real estate,
South Africa,
South African rand,
tailored home,
the economy,
UK economy,
USA Economy | Tags:
Currency,
Euro,
property,
UK economy,
US EconomyWednesday 15th January 09
USA
• The U.S. economy continued to weaken into 2009, a Federal Reserve
beige book report Wednesday showed, as consumers appeared unswayed by
deep holiday discounts. The employment market also softened, with some
regional Fed banks reporting pay freezes or even cuts in their districts,
especially among financial institutions where year-end bonuses are likely to
be down at least 20% to 30%.
• On Wednesday, the dollar declined to nearly a four-week low against the
yen on the release of disappointing U.S. retail data. The blow to risk appetite, coupled with an announcement from
Citigroup that it would sell a majority stake in its brokerage unit to Morgan Stanley, weighed heavily on U.S. stocks.
Figures out today:
1330 US Jan 10 Jobless Claims Weekly Jobless Claims Exp 513K vs Prev 467K
Change Exp +46K vs Prev -24K
1330 US Dec PPI Exp -2% vs Prev -2.2%
PPI Core Exp +0.1% vs Prev 0%
1330 US Jan NY Fed Empire State Survey Manufacturing Index Exp -26 vs Prev -25.76
1500 US Jan Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Business Activity Exp -36.1 vs Prev -36.1
Europe
Figures out today:
0800 `EU ECB Governing Council meeting
1000 EU Dec CPI Monthly Exp -0.1% vs Prev -0.5%
CPI Yearly Exp +1.6% vs Prev +2.1%
1245 EU ECB interest rate decision announcement Exp 2% vs Prev 2.5
1330 EU ECB Governing Council meeting press conference
• Euro Declines Toward Five-Week Low Before ECB Policy Meeting: Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) — The euro fell,
approaching a five- week low against the dollar, on speculation the European Central Bank will cut interest rates by
at least half a percentage point at a policy meeting today. ECB policy makers meeting in Frankfurt will lower the
benchmark lending rate by half a percentage point to 2 percent, according to the median of 60 forecasts in a
Bloomberg News survey. That would match the lowest rate since the ECB took charge of monetary policy in 1999.
The bank will reduce the rate to a record low of 1.5 percent in March, another survey shows. Trichet said last month
there’s a limit to how far the ECB can cut rates and has refused to give any signal for January, suggesting he favours a
pause. At the same time, data show the economy of the 16 nations sharing the euro is slipping deeper into recession as
the global financial crisis hurts exports, damps spending and swells budget deficits across the region. The ECB
announces its decision at 12:45 p.m. and Trichet holds a press conference 45 minutes later. The ECB is lagging
counterparts such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Swiss central bank, which have reduced
borrowing costs aggressively as the world’s largest economies slide simultaneously into recession for the first time
since World War II.
Russia
• Russia Devalues Ruble Fourth Time This Week, Bank Official Says: Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) — Bank Rossii, Russia’s
central bank, devalued the ruble for the fourth time in five days, letting it weaken to a record low against the dollar, an
official said. The ruble’s trading band against the target basket of dollars and euros used to manage currency swings
has been widened, said the central bank official, who declined to be identified on bank policy. The currency was also
devalued Jan. 11, Jan. 12 and yesterday. Official trading for 2009 started Jan. 11.
Australia and New Zealand
• N.Z. Dollar Falls to 7-Year Low per Yen; Australian Bonds Gain: Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) — New Zealand’s dollar fell to
the lowest since 2001 against the yen and Australia’s dollar dropped to the weakest in a month on concern the global
slowdown will worsen. Australian bonds gained. New Zealand’s currency slipped to the lowest in more than a month
versus the U.S. dollar after a government report showed house prices declined the most in three years last month,
adding to signs the nation’s recession is deepening. Australia’s 10- year yield fell to the lowest since at least 1969
after the statistics bureau said the unemployment rate rose to the highest level in almost two years…
www.tailoredhome.co.uk
Tailored Home Are UK & Overseas Property Finder For Best Selection Of Overseas Property, New Homes In UK, Listings Of UK New Home Developers and UK Property, Emigration Overseas, Relocation Services & More.
Shared Ownership |UK New Homes and Developers |First Time Buyers|
Emigration | Investment |Overseas Property |Downsizing |Equity release
www.mercury-fx.com
Mercury Foreign Exchange Ltd is a currency exchange service for corporates and private individuals. We’re based in the City of London and are a direct alternative to the banks for currency. We offer better-than-bank exchange rates, currency market insight and low-cost international payments.
Why not order your holiday money online and have it delivered to your office https://www.currency-express.com/mercuryfx/
